Metal and electrical industry in the downward trend: pessimism dominates!

Metal and electrical industry in the downward trend: pessimism dominates!

The mood in the metal and electrical industry in North Rhine-Westphalia worsened significantly in 2024. According to a Business survey Business situation as "good". In the previous year, this value was still 19 percent. At the same time, 48 percent of the respondents show dissatisfaction with the current situation, which corresponds to an increase of 10 percent compared to the previous year

Production in the metal and electrical industry has also subsided. Data from total metal show that M+e-production was 5.5 percent below the level of the previous year. Compared to September, the output fell by 0.6 percent. Due to the poor occupancy, the production plans for November and December were corrected downwards, which means a possible continuation of the recession in the fourth quarter. This would mark the seventh recession quartal in a row.

negative development of the order situation

in October sales and sales have continued to decrease, compared to the weak September. In addition, abroad this year is again below the previous year, despite a robust global economy. The export views appear negative, while the new orders in October decreased compared to the previous month. Stabilizing the order level was mainly achieved by large orders in other vehicle construction.

The majority of companies in the metal and electrical industry evaluate both the load and the order stock, which is reminiscent of the difficult situation during the financial crisis and the Covid 19 pandemic. An accelerated personnel loss is also recorded: the number of employees in the M+E-industry was 45,800 and 1.2 percent lower in October than in the same month. Every third company plans to dismantle personnel and the use of short -time work increases. The business climate in the M+E industry continued to deteriorate in December and the position assessments decreased. On average, every third company already assess the situation as bad, which reinforces pessimism in terms of the coming months. Worsened location conditions could extend the recession beyond the turn of the year.