Poland facing a decision: who will be the next president?

Poland facing a decision: who will be the next president?

Today, June 1, 2025, Poland is at a crucial turning point: a new president will be chosen in an exciting runoff election. The latest polls pitted liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki for the highest office in the state. Loud South German newspaper The two are practically tied, which marks the election as a directional choice for deeply divided Poland.

Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, secured 31.3% of the vote in the first round, while Nawrocki, a little-known historian, got 29.5% BBC reported. Over 67% of voters took part in the first round. In the final decision, Trzaskowski is supported by the pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk, while Nawrocki has the backing of the right-wing conservative PiS. A victory for Nawrocki could make it more difficult for Tusk to govern and even lead to early elections.

Political challenges

Disillusionment with politics stands out in the election campaign: over 21% of voters voted for right-wing extremist candidates in the first round. This could mean that the supporters of the eliminated right-wing extremist candidates will mainly support Nawrocki in the runoff election. He repeatedly caused a stir during the election campaign by warning of a loss of Polish sovereignty by the EU. His supporters from rural areas are calling for a return to traditional values ​​and less EU influence.

On the other side is Trzaskowski, who is strongly committed to LGBT rights and primarily appeals to urban voters. His political goals include, among other things, the liberalization of abortion laws and reforms in the judiciary. But he also found that his support in the polls fell short of expectations, even though he was considered the favorite before the elections.

Geopolitical dimensions of the election

At the same time, the presidential election will also be influenced by the geopolitical situation. Poland has experienced continuous development as an EU member since 2004 and plans to invest 4.7% of its GDP in defense, especially in the context of the Ukraine war. Under the motto “Security, Europe!” The country focuses on military and economic security as well as supporting Ukraine. The Ukraine War increased Poland's military importance, as the Polish army has more soldiers than the Bundeswehr - a total of 206,000.

Recently, Poland also took over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, which also contributes to the current political dynamics. This Council Presidency comes at a difficult geopolitical time, marked by both the Russian war of aggression and the situation in the Middle East. Prime Minister Tusk is planning numerous events to position Poland as an active player in the EU and promote his own political agenda, while at the same time ensuring medical, energy and economic security in Europe. The Federal Agency for Civic Education sees this presidency as an opportunity to decisively advance EU projects in the areas of defense and migration policy.

In this turbulent political constellation, it is uncertain which direction Poland will take. The runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will not only affect the country's internal affairs, but also have far-reaching consequences for relations with Europe and beyond. Today, the votes of voters will decide whether Poland continues to move in a pro-European direction or whether nationalism becomes more important.